| 2009-10 Season Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves Authored by Daniel Leroux - October 20, 2009 - 12:25 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -12.1, 27th
Key Additions: Ramon Sessions, Jonny Flynn, Ryan Hollins, Sasha Pavlovic
Key Subtractions: Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Craig Smith, Sebastian Telfair
Key Rookies: Jonny Flynn, Wayne Ellington
Point Guards: Unlike the uncertainty that plagued last season (and even a vast majority of the off-season), Minnesota should have a pretty stable status quo at the point guard position for the 2009-2010 season. Ramon Sessions has spent the last two seasons languishing as an underappreciated point on the rise in the wilderness that is the Milwaukee Bucks. While not a perfect player by any stretch, his astonishingly low turnover rate (essentially 2 per game over the last two seasons) coupled with a respectable assist rate makes him a very compelling fit for the team in its current state. What makes acquiring Sessions even more impressive is how reasonable his contract is (4 years, $16m). Considering where the Wolves are at the position in the long term, the worst case scenario if all three end up on the squad is that one of them gets moved- not a problem at all. It would be a boon to the squad if Sessions could develop any sort of perimeter game, though it may not be fair to criticize a guy like Ramon for not having it as a part of his game since it was never there in the first place.
The other PG of the future on the current roster is Mr. Charisma: Jonny Flynn. It is worth getting it out there at the start that I am not as big a fan as most of Flynn, but the guy should at least be a solid player in the league that also is an incredible natural leader. The biggest issue with the Flynn/Sessions combo in the short term is minutes- both players are deserving of a large amount, yet the prospect of them playing together does not sit particularly well because of how they could be defended. Flynn and Sessions both have their games, but having a frontcourt largely devoid of perimeter threats effectively neuters much of that quality if they are on the court at the same time. That said, it is amazing to think that the franchise went from having a largely bare cupboard (considering Foye is more of an off-guard than a PG) to having three guys in their control worthy of heavy minutes at the point in just one off-season.
I sincerely doubt that any of the backup PG’s (Shakur, Hart, etc) get minutes on this team considering how good Sessions and Flynn should be, but they should be ready to step up in case of injury.
Swingmen: I’m sure most NBA folk would start their analysis here with Ryan Gomes, but I see Corey Brewer as the true X-Factor for the Minnesota SG/SF crew. A team whose two best players are Al Jefferson and Kevin Love absolutely requires a defensive identity on the wing, and the most logical current player to fill that void is Brewer. As the division seemingly continues to add #1 scorers (Roy, Melo, and Durant, and who knows what the Jazz will get with the Knicks’ pick in 2010…), it becomes imperative that Brewer becomes that guy. The best possible niche for Corey to work towards is an alternate version of 2008-2009 Trevor Ariza- shutdown defender who can get some hustle buckets on the break and not force the issue on offense. If he can do that, this team can be a whole lot more dangerous and pick off some games that they wouldn’t otherwise win.
Ryan Gomes is another solid player who needs a slightly reduced role to maximize his contributions. He’s a fine player and sure seems like a great guy, yet it’s hard to see Gomes as a starter on a playoff-caliber team. That said, his salary is fine for his contribution and the make-up of the squad in the long term shows indications that he will eventually be able to become the stud off the bench that is likely his best role. For now, Gomes will shoulder a larger portion of the load.
Beyond those two, Minnesota has a trio of new arrivals looking to make a difference this season to secure a better future in the NBA. Sasha Pavlovic is fresh off playing next to the MVP and could end up being a compelling complement to the two-headed PG monster if he can hit open shots. The other pivotal shooting wingman is Wayne Ellington. Wayne may not get a ton of burn this year (though I hope he does), but he should have a niche on this squad if he can keep up his mid-range effectiveness and ideally stretch that out a little while becoming more dangerous at the stripe and in transition. Damien Wilkins should be more of a gap filler during 2009-2010, though a bounce-back year for the nephew of Human Highlight Film could help sway a game or two.
Big Men: I love Al Jefferson. He is the natural foil to Dwight Howard because he swaps Dwight’s natural athleticism and defensive instincts for a low post repertoire and beastly offensive instincts. It remains to be seen how Big Al’s game reacts to the last season’s injury, though his interior game should stand up pretty well even while he’s working his way back. One other thing to love about Al is his rebounding- he has been very good in terms of both number and rate since coming into the league. If his defense can make it all the way to passable, he can be an even more dominant force in this league and take this team another level or two up.
Kevin Love had an excellent rookie season, yet still has a long way to grow. As someone very familiar with The Throwback (my nickname for him, use it or hate on it as you wish) from high school as well as his time at UCLA, Kevin is someone I describe as “NBA 2K-good.” What that means is that when putting his attributes into numerical form (like in the excellent 2K series), you end up having so many high ratings that it looks a little fishy. Kevin is already the best passing big man since Bill Walton, had arguably the single best rebounding year of any rookie in the shot clock era, and possesses a solid shooting stroke. Obviously his defense needs a ton of work, but Love’s potential is wholly underrated because his dedication will lead him to add new facets to his game which is dangerous considering how many pieces he already has in place. We’ll have to see how long it takes for him to recover from his hand injury, but for now it seems like a short-term setback that will just make things harder for Minnesota to start the season.
From there, we have a group of guys who will probably hang on the periphery this season. Ryan Hollins should be a solid energy player for the Wolves if Coach Rambis uses him correctly. I would love to see him as a part of a more fierce up and down unit with Gomes at PF and Brewer on the wing for a few minutes a game as a change of pace. If Hollins can turn his athletic ability into a more reliable overall defensive presence (more of a shot changer and a better on-man post defender), he can be a part of the team’s future as well as their present. Brian Cardinal is Brian Cardinal, though he would be better served on a team whose best two players were not natural Power Forwards.
I’ve been a fan of Oleksiy Pecherov for a little while now, and he could actually be worthy of some PT if he can ever put it together. All of these guys will get a full chance to make a strong first impression because of Kevin Love’s injury.
Forecast: From Christmas to February 4th last season, the Wolves went 13-7. It seemed like the young squad had flipped the switch and was becoming the team many thought they could be in 2011 a few years early. However, Al Jefferson’s injury derailed the season and left Minnesota with a disappointing though understandable 24-58 mark on the year. While the Wolves replaced the scoring of Mike Miller and Randy Foye with two solid PG’s and some depth wings, there are dramatically less easy wins on the Western Conference landscape this year, and the fact that they were the only team with a worse record at home than on the road makes the prediction game even more difficult. I would have put Minnesota at a 30-win season, but Love’s injury takes about three games off the top, so I’ll use 27 as the baseline, with an extra 5-10 wins being an absolute possibility with additional players stepping up. |
